by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2023 02:10:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Inventory and Demographics: The Next Big Shift

A brief excerpt:

In 2021 I wrote Housing and Demographics: The Next Big Shift. In that article I reviewed how demographics had helped me call the apartment boom in the early 2010s, and the home buying boom in 2020.

I also noted:

No cohort is monolithic - some people will age-in-place until they pass away, others will move in with family (or family will move in with their parents), and some will move to retirement communities.

There is no magic age that people reach and start to transition, but looking at prior generations, it seems to start when people are around 80 years old.

This graph shows the longer term trend for two key age groups: 60 to 79, and 80+.

This graph is from 2010 to 2060 (all data from Census: current to 2060 is projected).

The leading edge of the Baby Boom generation is currently 75 (born in 1946), and these people will be turning 80 in 2026.

The peak of the boomers will be turning 80 in 2035 or so, and the tail end turning 80 in 2044 (born in 1964).

My sense is there will be a pickup in Boomers selling their homes in the 2nd half of the 2020s and lasting until 2040 or so. These homes will be older - and most will need updating - but many of these homes will be in prime locations.

Now the leading edge of the Baby Boom generation is 77. My view is we will see a pickup in downsizing later this decade, but mostly this will be a 2030s story.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/