by Calculated Risk on 7/19/2023 02:39:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June & 4th Look at Local Markets

A brief excerpt:

An early read from housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million in June, down 0.9% from May’s preliminary pace and down 17.0% from last June’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was virtually unchanged from a year earlier.

Note: the NAR is scheduled to release June existing home sales tomorrow, Thursday, July 20th, and the consensus expectation is for the NAR to report sales of 4.23 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis, down from 4.30 million in May.
...
In June, sales in these markets were down 14.9%. In June, these same markets were down 15.9% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in May for these markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in June 2022 and June 2023.

A key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates.

This sample data suggests that June existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline - and will probably be below the May sales rate of 4.30 million (SAAR) - and the 22nd consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

I’ll have several more local markets after that will be released after the NAR report, including New York, Miami, and Illinois.

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