Lawler: Update on Demographic Trends, and Population and Household Projections Through 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Update on Demographic Trends, and Population and Household Projections Through 2025

A brief excerpt:

Executive Summary:  Higher Net International Migration (NIM) and lower deaths have improved the US “demographic” outlook, though population growth from 2022 to 2025 will still be historically on the low side – in part because of continued very low birth rates.  Household growth, on the other hand, will likely be materially slower than the apparent very rapid growth following the pandemic, and will probably not be that different from the annual average growth experienced last decade.

The Census Bureau’s “Vintage 2022” population estimates suggested that the US resident population increased by 0.38% from July 1, 2021 to July 1, 2022, very low by historical standards but up from the 0.16% from the previous year.  The uptick in growth reflected a modest increase in the number of births (from very low level) and a significant increase in estimate net international migration (from very low levels), offset by a slight increase in the number of deaths.  (Note that CDC data suggest that the Vintage 2022 estimates for deaths over the 12-month period ending 6/20/2022 is understated by almost 20,000.).

Available data since July 1, 2022 suggest that (1) births over the 12-month period ending July 1, 2023 will probably be down very slightly from the year ago 12-month period; (2) deaths will be significantly lower over the 12-month period ending July 1, 2023 compared to the year ago 12-month period, mainly reflecting substantial declines in Covid related deaths; and (3) net international migration over the 12-month period ending July 1, 2023 should be higher than the year ago 12-month period.
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Translating all of this information into actual and projected household growth, however, is challenging given the lack of actual and timely historical data.  Based on the limited data available, below are my “guesstimates” for household growth from 2020 to 2023, as well as my projections through 2025.  In terms of headship rates, I assumed that headship rates by age gradually declined from 2022 to 2025, but that over that period the “reversal” in headship gains was only 30%.  (Yes, I am aware that is arbitrary.).   Also shown are what household growth would have been if headship rates by age had been unchanged from 2020 (I used Decennial Census data to derive 2020 headship rates, though that data may have issues.)
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