Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in June

From Dodge Data Analytics: Decline in Institutional Planning Drops Dodge Momentum Index Down 3% in June

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, declined 2.5% in June to 197.3 (2000=100) from the revised May reading of 202.4. Over the month, the commercial component of the DMI rose 3.1%, while the institutional component sunk 10.5%.

“A deceleration in institutional planning caused the Momentum Index to decrease in June,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network. “Project activity in this segment pulled back from the robust highs of the last three months but continued to dwarf year-ago levels. In contrast, growth in the commercial segment may be fleeting, as the continued elevation in interest rates and increasingly tight lending standards weigh down the sector in the latter half of the year.”

Commercial planning in June remained afloat alongside an uptick in data center and hotel planning projects. Institutional planning, on the other hand, was driven lower by a decrease in education and healthcare activity. Year over year, the DMI remains 25% higher than in June 2022. The commercial and institutional components were up 17% and 39% respectively.
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The DMI is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
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Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 197.3 in June, down from 202.4 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests some slowdown towards the end of 2023 or in 2024.  

Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator.