by Calculated Risk on 7/20/2023 10:48:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.16 million SAAR in June; Median Prices Declined 0.9% YoY in June

Excerpt:

On prices, the NAR reported:

The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $410,200, the second-highest price of all time and down 0.9% from the record-high of $413,800 in June 2022. The monthly median price surpassed $400,000 for the third time, joining June 2022 and May 2022 ($408,600). Prices rose in the Northeast and Midwest but waned in the South and West.

Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).

The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and prices are now down 0.9% YoY. Median house prices increased 3.5% from May to June and are down 0.9% from the peak in June 2022 (NSA).   The median price tends to lead the Case-Shiller index, and this is further evidence that Case-Shiller will likely turn positive year-over-year.

Note that closed sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May. Mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, average around 6.4% in April and May. July sales will be for contracts signed in May and June, mortgage rates averaged 6.7% in June, so closed sales will likely be similar or less in July compared to June.

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