by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2023 09:17:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through June 2023.

CPI Shelter was up 7.8% year-over-year in June, down from 8.0% in May, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 8.0% YoY in June, down from 8.3% in May, and down from the cycle peak of 8.4% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly unchanged year-over-year, these measures will slow sharply in coming months.