by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2023 10:10:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July

A brief excerpt:

This is the second look at local markets in July. I’m tracking a sample of about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in May and June. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6.4% range in May, and 6.7% in June, compared to the low-to-mid 5% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in July.
...
In July, sales in these markets were down 13.9%. In June, these same markets were down 15.9% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in June for these markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in July 2022 and July 2023.

A key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates. ...

This data suggests the July existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline - and probably close to the June sales rate of 4.16 million (SAAR) - and the 23rd consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/