by Calculated Risk on 8/31/2023 06:01:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

"We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 149k in August (mom sa), below consensus of +170k. ... our forecast embeds a 26k one-time drag from the combination of Hollywood worker strikes (-18k) and Yellow trucking layoffs (-8k) ... We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5%—in line with consensus—reflecting a modest rise in household employment and unchanged labor force participation (at 62.6%)."
emphasis added