by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2023 10:05:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 50, down from 56 last month. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Falls on Rising Mortgage Rates

After steadily rising for seven consecutive months, builder confidence retreated in August as rising mortgage rates nearing 7% (per Freddie Mac) and stubbornly high shelter inflation have further eroded housing affordability and put a damper on consumer demand.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in August fell six points to 50, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

“Rising mortgage rates and high construction costs stemming from a dearth of construction workers, a lack of buildable lots and ongoing shortages of distribution transformers put a chill on builder sentiment in August,” said NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “But while this latest confidence reading is a reminder that housing affordability is an ongoing challenge, demand for new construction continues to be supported by a lack of resale inventory, as many home owners elect to stay put because they are locked in at a low mortgage rate.”
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The August HMI survey also revealed that rising mortgage rates are causing more builders to use sales incentives to attract home buyers. After dropping steadily for four months (from 31% in March to 22% in July), the share of builders cutting prices to bolster sales rose again to 25% in August. The average decline for builders reducing prices remained at 6%. And the share of builders using incentives to bolster sales was 55% in August, higher than in July (52%) but still lower than in December 2022 (62%).

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three major HMI indices posted declines in August. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell five points to 57, the component charting sales expectations in the next six months declined four points to 55 and the gauge measuring traffic of prospective buyers dropped six points to 34.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased four points to 56, the Midwest and South were both unchanged at 45 and 58, respectively, and the West edged down a single point to 50.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was below the consensus forecast.