by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2023 09:41:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in August

A brief excerpt:

Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release August existing home sales tomorrow, Thursday, September 21st, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is the NAR will report sales of 4.10 million SAAR, up from 4.07 million in July.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.07 million SAAR for August.
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In August, sales in these markets were down 12.1% YoY. In July, these same markets were down 14.5% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a slightly smaller YoY decline NSA than in July for these markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in August 2022 and August 2023.

A key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates - and sales in August on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis will likely be close to the July sales rate (4.07 million SAAR).

Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.

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