by Calculated Risk on 9/01/2023 11:04:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in July to New High; Up 2.9% Year-over-year; Black Knight Index Hits New High, but "Mixed signals"

A brief excerpt:

On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.9% in July, from up 1.6% YoY in June.  The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021. ...

In July, 14 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Hawaii (-6.4%), Idaho (-5.9%), Nevada (-4.6%), Utah (-4.2%), and Arizona (-4.1%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted.
...
“While home prices rose on both seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted bases, July’s 0.23% non-adjusted month-over-month growth was smaller than the 0.34% non-adjusted increase July has seen on average over the past 25 years, suggesting a possible transition may be underway,” [Black Knight Vice President of Enterprise Research Andy] Walden continued. “Indeed – in addition to monthly gains slowing below long-term averages – Black Knight rate lock and sales transaction data also points to lower average purchase prices and seasonally adjusted price per square foot among recent sales."

The Black Knight suggests we will see new highs for the next few months, but that there may be some house price weakness late this year.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/