by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2023 11:34:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

A brief excerpt:

This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in September were mostly for contracts signed in July and August. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6.8% range in July, and 7.1% in August, compared to the low-5% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in September.
...
Note: Sales in Jacksonville were up YoY. This is because sales were depressed in September 2022 by Hurricane Ian. Sales in other areas of Florida will also likely be up YoY.

In September, sales in these markets were down 20.6%. In August, these same markets were down 14.6% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a larger YoY decline NSA than in August for these early reporting markets. However, there was one less working day in September 2023 compared to September 2022. So, seasonally adjusted, the decline will not be quite as large. ... This early data suggests the September existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline, perhaps to around 3.8 to 3.9 million (an early guess), and below the previous cycle low of 4.00 million in January 2023. This will be the 25th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/