by Calculated Risk on 10/18/2023 02:26:00 PM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: 30-Year Mortgage Rates Hit 8.0%

Excerpt:

Mortgage News Daily reports 30-year fixed rate mortgages rose to 8.0% today (for top tier scenarios).

This will mostly impact closed sales in November and December, and strongly suggests we will see new cycle lows for existing home sales over the winter.

Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release September existing home sales tomorrow, Thursday, October 19th, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is the NAR will report sales of 3.94 million SAAR, down from 4.04 million in August.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.00 million SAAR for September.

Due to the impact of Hurricane Ian in September 2022, existing home sales are up year-over-year in Florida, and that might have kept seasonally adjusted sales from hitting a new cycle low in September (it will be close).

There is much more in the post.  You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/