by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2023 12:23:00 PM

A few excerpts from a research note by Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker: Higher for Longer and the 2024 Housing Outlook

Sustained higher mortgage rates will have their most pronounced impact in 2024 on housing turnover. ... As a result, we expect the fewest annual existing home sales since the early 1990s at 3.8mn.

While vacancy rates remain at historic lows, we expect housing starts to decline by 4% to 1.34mn in 2024, reflecting sharply fewer multifamily starts.

We expect only modest home price growth of +1.3% in 2024, as supply remains tight but high rates weigh on affordability.