A few excerpts from a research note by Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker: Higher for Longer and the 2024 Housing Outlook
Sustained higher mortgage rates will have their most pronounced impact in 2024 on housing turnover. ... As a result, we expect the fewest annual existing home sales since the early 1990s at 3.8mn.
While vacancy rates remain at historic lows, we expect housing starts to decline by 4% to 1.34mn in 2024, reflecting sharply fewer multifamily starts.
We expect only modest home price growth of +1.3% in 2024, as supply remains tight but high rates weigh on affordability.
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