by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2023 08:17:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.5% week-over-week.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of October 27th, inventory was at 563 thousand (7-day average), compared to 554 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is up 14.6%.  And inventory is up 38.5% from the seasonal bottom 28 weeks ago.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.

Inventory was down 2.7% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 3.2%), and down 39.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 40.7%). 

In 2022, inventory peaked the same week one year ago (the latest in the year inventory has peaked), and it is possible inventory will peak even later this year!   I now expect inventory to be up YoY soon.

Inventory is now 2.4% above the same week in 2020 levels (dark blue line).

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.