by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2023 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 759 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down slightly, combined.

Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 759,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.3 percent above the revised August rate of 676,000 and is 33.9 percent above the September 2022 estimate of 567,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are above pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in September to 6.9 months from 7.7 months in August.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 435,000. This represents a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales rate."

Sales were well above expectations of 679 thousand SAAR, and sales for the three previous months were only revised down slightly, combined. I'll have more later today.