by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2023 09:21:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October

A brief excerpt:

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October I reviewed home inventory and sales.
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Most measures of house prices have shown an increase in prices over the last several months, and a key question I discussed in July is Will house prices decline further later this year? I will revisit this question soon.

Other measures of house prices suggest prices will be up further YoY over the next few months in the Case-Shiller index. The NAR reported median prices were up 3.9% YoY in August, up from 1.7% YoY in July. ICE / Black Knight reported prices were up 3.8% YoY in August, up from 2.4% YoY in July to new all-time highs, and Freddie Mac reported house prices were up 4.0% YoY in August, up from 2.9% YoY in July - and also to new all-time highs.

Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. Based on recent monthly data, and the FMHPI, the YoY change in the Case-Shiller index will increase further in the report for August.

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