Friday, October 20, 2023

Q3 GDP Tracking: Around 4%

The preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP will be released next Thursday, Oct 26th. The consensus estimate is real GDP increased at a 4.1% annualized rate in Q3.

From BofA:
Overall, the data flow since our last weekly pushed up our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate from 3.8% to 4.3% q/q saar. [Oct 20th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.0% (qoq ar). [Oct 19th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.4 percent on October 18, unchanged from October 17 after rounding. [Oct 18th estimate]

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