by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2023 11:21:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

A brief excerpt:

NOTE: Starting next month, I’ll add some comparisons to 2019 (pre-pandemic)!

This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in October. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in October were mostly for contracts signed in August and September. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 7.1% in August and 7.2% in September, compared to the high-5% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in October.
...
In October, sales in these markets were down 10.3%. In September, these same markets were down 18.8% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a much smaller YoY decline NSA than in September for these early reporting markets. However, this is where seasonal adjustments make a difference.

There was one more working day in October 2023 compared to October 2022, the opposite of September when there was one fewer working day in 2023 compared to 2022. So, for October, the seasonally adjusted decline will be larger than the NSA decline.
...
This early data suggests the October existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline, perhaps to just above 4 million SAAR (early guess of Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), and above the cycle low of 3.96 million SAAR last month. This will be the 26th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/