by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2023 12:56:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in October

A brief excerpt:

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release October existing home sales on Tuesday, November 21, 2023, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 3.93 million SAAR. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.94 million SAAR. This would be a new cycle low, below the 4.00 million SAAR in January 2023.

NOTE: Starting next month, I’ll add some comparisons to 2019 data (pre-pandemic)!
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In October, sales in these markets were down 9.4%. In September, these same markets were down 15.7% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in September for these markets. However, this is where seasonal adjustments make a difference.

There was one more working day in October 2023 compared to October 2022, the opposite of September when there was one fewer working day in 2023 compared to 2022. So, for October, the seasonally adjusted decline will be larger than the NSA decline. This will be the 26th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.
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Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.

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