by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2023 10:12:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 46.7% in October, down from 49.0% in September. The employment index was at 46.8%, down from 51.2% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 45.5%, down from 49.2%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.7% October 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the 12th consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.7 percent in October, 2.3 percentage points lower than the 49 percent recorded in September. The overall economy dropped back into contraction after one month of weak expansion preceded by nine months of contraction and a 30-month period of expansion before that. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.5 percent, 3.7 percentage points lower than the figure of 49.2 percent recorded in September. The Production Index reading of 50.4 percent is a 2.1-percentage point decrease compared to September’s figure of 52.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 45.1 percent, up 1.3 percentage points compared to the reading of 43.8 percent in September. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than the September reading of 42.4 percent. The Employment Index registered 46.8 percent, down 4.4 percentage points from the 51.2 percent reported in September.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in October.  This was below the consensus forecast.  Note that the price index was at 45.1% (falling prices).