by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2023 02:57:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

A brief excerpt:

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release November existing home sales tomorrow, Wednesday, December 20, 2023, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 3.78 million SAAR. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.87 million SAAR.

The cycle low was last month at 3.79 million.

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the fourth look at several early reporting local markets in November. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in November were mostly for contracts signed in September and October. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 7.2% in September, and 7.6% in October, compared to the mid-6% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in November.
...
And a table of November sales.

In November, sales in these markets were down 6.0% YoY. In October, these same markets were down 9.2% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Note that sales were up YoY in Austin, Houston and mid-Florida.

Sales in all of these markets are down compared to November 2019, although sales in Houston were close to 2019 levels.
...
The data released so far suggests the November existing home sales report will show another YoY decline, likely above the cycle low of 3.79 million SAAR last month. This will be the 27th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

Note that the low during the housing bust was 3.30 million in July 2010.

Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/