RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2023 02:08:00 PM
Wednesday, December 13, 2023
FOMC Projections and Press Conference
Statement here.
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
Here are the projections. Since the September projections were released, the economy has performed better than the FOMC expected, and inflation was below expectations.
In September, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was at 5.1% at the end of 2024. The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now at 4.6% at the end of 2024.
Market participants expects the target range to be between 4.0% and 4.5% at the end of 2024.
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in November. The FOMC's unemployment rate projection for Q4 was probably close. The FOMC's unemployment rate projection for Q4 was unchanged.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of October 2023, PCE inflation increased 3.0 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 3.4 percent YoY in September, and down from the recent peak of 7.1 percent in June 2022. Projections for PCE inflation were revised down.
PCE core inflation increased 3.5 percent YoY, down from 3.7 percent in September, and down from the recent peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022. Core PCE inflation likely declined to around 3.2% in November, and the FOMC revised down their projections.
The BEA reported real GDP increased at a 5.2% annual rate in Q3. GDP tracking estimates show Q4 at around 1.2% SAAR. This would put Q4 over Q4 GDP at 2.6%. Even with slower growth in Q4, the FOMC projections for year-over-year growth in Q4 2023 was revised up.
| GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Dec 2023 | 2.5 to 2.7 | 1.2 to 1.7 | 1.5 to 2.0 | 1.8 to 2.0 |
| Sept 2023 | 1.9 to 2.2 | 1.2 to 1.8 | 1.6 to 2.0 | 1.7 to 2.0 |
The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in November. The FOMC's unemployment rate projection for Q4 was probably close. The FOMC's unemployment rate projection for Q4 was unchanged.
| Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Dec 2023 | 3.8 | 4.0 to 4.2 | 4.0 to 4.2 | 3.9 to 4.3 |
| Sept 2023 | 3.7 to 3.9 | 3.9 to 4.4 | 3.9 to 4.3 | 3.8 to 4.3 |
As of October 2023, PCE inflation increased 3.0 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 3.4 percent YoY in September, and down from the recent peak of 7.1 percent in June 2022. Projections for PCE inflation were revised down.
| Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Dec 2023 | 2.7 to 2.9 | 2.2 to 2.5 | 2.0 to 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Sept 2023 | 3.2 to 3.4 | 2.3 to 2.7 | 2.0 to 2.3 | 2.0 to 2.2 |
PCE core inflation increased 3.5 percent YoY, down from 3.7 percent in September, and down from the recent peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022. Core PCE inflation likely declined to around 3.2% in November, and the FOMC revised down their projections.
| Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Dec 2023 | 3.2 to 3.3 | 2.4 to 2.7 | 2.0 to 2.2 | 2.0 to 2.1 |
| Sept 2023 | 3.6 to 3.9 | 2.5 to 2.8 | 2.0 to 2.4 | 2.0 to 2.3 |
