by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2023 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 590 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down.

Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.2 percent below the revised October rate of 672,000, but is 1.4 percent above the November 2022 estimate of 582,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were slightly below pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in November to 9.2 months from 7.9 months in October.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 451,000. This represents a supply of 9.2 months at the current sales rate."

Sales were well below expectations of 695 thousand SAAR, and sales for the three previous months were revised down. I'll have more later today.