by Calculated Risk on 1/30/2024 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Upward Trend Decelerates in November

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in November, up from a 4.7% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 6.2%, up from a 5.7% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.4%, up from a 4.9% increase in the previous month. Once again, Detroit reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.2% increase in November, followed again by San Diego with an 8% increase. For the third month in a row, Portland fell 0.7% and remained the only city reporting lower prices in November versus a year ago.
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For the first time since January 2023, the U.S. National Index and 20-City Composite posted 0.2% month-over-month decreases in November, while the 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and the 10-City Composite posted month-overmonth increases of 0.2%, while the 20-City Composite posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1%.

“U.S. home prices edged downward from their all-time high in November,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P DJI. “The streak of nine monthly gains ended in November, setting the index back to levels last seen over the summer months. Seattle and San Francisco reported the largest monthly declines, falling 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.”

“November’s year-over-year gain saw the largest growth in U.S. home prices in 2023, with our National Composite rising 5.1% and the 10-city index rising 6.2%. Detroit held its position as the best performing market for the third month in a row, accelerating to an 8.2% gain. San Diego notched an 8% annual gain, retaining its second spot in the nation. Barring a late surge from another market, those cities will vie for the ‘housing market of the year’ as the best performing city in our composite.”

“Six cities registered a new all-time high in November (Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, New York, and Cleveland). Portland remains the lone market in annual decline. The Northeast and Midwest recorded the largest gains with returns of 6.4% and 6.3%, respectively. Other regions are not far behind with the slowest gains in the West of 3%. This month’s report revealed the narrowest spread of performance across the nation since the first quarter of 2021.”

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 0.2% in November (SA) and is at a new all-time high.

The Composite 20 index is up 0.1% (SA) in November and is also at a new all-time high.

The National index is up 0.2% (SA) in November and is also at a new all-time high.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 6.2% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA is up 5.4% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 5.1% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were below expectations.  I'll have more later.