by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2024 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 47.4% in December, up from 46.7% in November. The employment index was at 48.1%, up from 45.8% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.1%, down from 48.3%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.4% December 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

conomic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 14th consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.4 percent in December, up 0.7 percentage point from the 46.7 percent recorded in November. The overall economy continued in contraction for a third month after one month of weak expansion preceded by nine months of contraction and a 30-month period of expansion before that. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.1 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the figure of 48.3 percent recorded in November. The Production Index reading of 50.3 percent is a 1.8-percentage point increase compared to November’s figure of 48.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 45.2 percent, down 4.7 percentage points compared to the reading of 49.9 percent in November. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.3 percent, 6 percentage points higher than the November reading of 39.3 percent. The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, up 2.3 percentage points from the 45.8 percent reported in November.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in December.  This was slightly above the consensus forecast.