by Calculated Risk on 1/19/2024 02:01:00 PM

The advance estimate of Q4 GDP will be released next week, and the consensus is for real GDP (SAAR) of 1.8%.

From BofA:

Overall, since our last weekly publication, our 4Q US GDP tracking estimate is up two-tenths to 1.3% q/q saar, while 3Q GDP finalized at 4.9% q/q saar in the third estimate. [Jan 12th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

Following today’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking unchanged at +1.8% (qoq ar) and our Q4 domestic final sales growth forecast also unchanged at +2.5% (qoq ar). [Jan 19th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on January 19, unchanged from January 18 after rounding. After this morning's existing-home sales report from the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -0.4 percent to -0.6 percent. [Jan 19th estimate]