Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly"

Fed's Beige Book

Economic activity increased slightly, on balance, since early January, with eight Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, three others reporting no change, and one District noting a slight softening. Consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks. Several reports cited heightened price sensitivity by consumers and noted that households continued to trade down and to shift spending away from discretionary goods. Activity in the leisure and hospitality sector varied by District and segment; while air travel was robust overall, demand for restaurants, hotels, and other establishments softened due to elevated prices, as well as to unusual weather conditions in certain regions. Manufacturing activity was largely unchanged, and supply bottlenecks normalized further. Nevertheless, delivery delays for electrical components continued. Ongoing shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal did not generally have a notable impact on businesses during the reporting period, although some contacts reported rising pressures on international shipping costs. Several reports highlighted a pickup in demand for residential real estate in recent weeks, largely owing to some moderation in mortgage rates, but noted that limited inventories hindered actual home sales. Commercial real estate activity was weak, particularly for office space, although there were reports of robust demand for new data centers, industrial and manufacturing spaces, and large infrastructure projects. Loan demand was stable to down, and credit quality was generally healthy despite a few reports of rising delinquencies. The outlook for future economic growth remained generally positive, with contacts noting expectations for stronger demand and less restrictive financial conditions over the next 6 to 12 months.

Labor Markets

Employment rose at a slight to modest pace in most Districts. Overall, labor market tightness eased further, with nearly all Districts highlighting some improvement in labor availability and employee retention. Businesses generally found it easier to fill open positions and to find qualified applicants, although difficulties persisted attracting workers for highly skilled positions, including health-care professionals, engineers, and skilled trades specialists such as welders and mechanics. Wages grew further across Districts, although several reports indicated a slower pace of increase. Employee expectations of pay adjustments were reportedly more in line with historical averages.

Prices

Price pressures persisted during the reporting period, but several Districts reported some degree of moderation in inflation. Contacts highlighted increases in freight costs and several insurance categories, including employer-sponsored health insurance. Nevertheless, businesses found it harder to pass through higher costs to their customers, who became increasingly sensitive to price changes. The cost of many manufacturing and construction inputs, such as steel, cement, paper, and fuel, reportedly fell in recent weeks.
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