RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2024 02:10:00 PM
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
FOMC Projections and Press Conference
Statement here.
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
Here are the projections. Since the last projections were released, the economy has performed close to FOMC expectations.
In December, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was at 4.675% at the end of 2024. The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now at 4.675% at the end of 2024.
Market participants expects the target range to be between 4.5% and 4.75% at the end of 2024.
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was at 3.9% in February and the projections for Q4 2024 were down slightly.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of January 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.4 percent year-over-year (YoY). The projections for PCE inflation were revised up slightly.
PCE core inflation increased 2.8 percent YoY in January. The projections for core PCE inflation were revised up slightly.
Early estimates for Q1 GDP are around 2% annualized, and the FOMC projections for year-over-year growth in Q4 2024 were revised up.
| GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| Mar 2024 | 2.0 to 2.4 | 1.9 to 2.3 | 1.8 to 2.1 | |
| Dec 2023 | 1.2 to 1.7 | 1.5 to 2.0 | 1.8 to 2.0 | |
The unemployment rate was at 3.9% in February and the projections for Q4 2024 were down slightly.
| Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| Mar 2024 | 3.9 to 4.1 | 3.9 to 4.2 | 3.9 to 4.3 | |
| Dec 2023 | 4.0 to 4.2 | 4.0 to 4.2 | 3.9 to 4.3 | |
As of January 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.4 percent year-over-year (YoY). The projections for PCE inflation were revised up slightly.
| Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| Mar 2024 | 2.3 to 2.7 | 2.1 to 2.2 | 2.0 to 2.1 | |
| Dec 2023 | 2.2 to 2.5 | 2.0 to 2.2 | 2.0 | |
PCE core inflation increased 2.8 percent YoY in January. The projections for core PCE inflation were revised up slightly.
Over the last 6 months, the PCE Price Index increase 2.5% annualized, the core PCE price index increased at a 2.5% annual rate. However, core PCE minus Housing increased at a 1.8% annualized rate suggesting that 2024 projections are too high.
| Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| Mar 2024 | 2.5 to 2.8 | 2.1 to 2.3 | 2.0 to 2.1 | |
| Dec 2023 | 2.4 to 2.7 | 2.0 to 2.2 | 2.0 to 2.1 | |
