by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2024 05:12:00 PM

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Bounce Back Nicely in February (pay site).

Inventory control was behind part of the month’s gains, but February evened out Januarys’s softness, which included payback for December’s strong results. The combined December-February seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.7 million units is more indicative of current demand, despite the gyrations of the past three months.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for February (red).

Sales in February (15.81 million SAAR) were up 5.4% from January, and up 6.3% from February 2023.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing.  This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and are up year-over-year.

Sales in February were above the consensus forecast.