by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2024 08:53:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined and is now up 3.9% YoY (increased recently).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through February 2024.

Services were up 5.0% YoY as of February 2024, unchanged from 5.0% YoY in January.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.9% YoY in February, up from 3.6% YoY in January.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -1.6% YoY as of February 2024, unchanged from -1.6% YoY in January.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were down 0.3% YoY in February, unchanged from down 0.3% YoY in January.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through February) and housing from the PCE report (through January)

Shelter was up 5.8% year-over-year in February, down from 6.1% in January. Housing (PCE) was up 6.1% YoY in January, down from 6.3% in December.

This is still catching up with private data.  The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter rose in February, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over sixty percent of the monthly increase in the index for all items."

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.2% YoY in January, unchanged from 2.2% in February.