by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2024 03:43:00 PM

This morning, the BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for March.

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020.  

Heavy truck sales were at 478 thousand SAAR in March, down from 499 thousand in February, and down 6.1% from 509 thousand SAAR in March 2023.  

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.   Heavy truck sales are solid.