by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2024 02:57:00 PM

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus is for 210,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.8%.

There were 303,000 jobs added in March, and the unemployment rate was at 3.8%.

From Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 275k in April ... Our forecast reflects a favorable evolution in the April seasonal factors and a continued boost from above-normal immigration. ... We estimate that the unemployment rate edged down but was unchanged on a rounded basis at 3.8%
emphasis added

From BofA:

We look for another month of solid job gains in the April employment report this week. We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 250k on the month, with private sector job gains totaling 200k. Elsewhere, we expect the unemployment rate, weekly hours, and the participation rate to hold steady at 3.8%, 34.4, and 62.7%, respectively.

• ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 192,000 private sector jobs were added in April.  This was above consensus forecasts and suggests job gains slightly above consensus expectations, however, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report.

• ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).  The ISM® manufacturing employment index increased to 48.6%, up from 47.4% the previous month.   This would suggest about 20,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 9,000 manufacturing jobs added in April.

The ISM® services employment index will be released tomorrow.

• Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed the same number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week from 212,000 in March to 212,000 in April.  This suggests a similar number of layoffs in April compared to March.

•  COVID: As far as the pandemic, the number of patients hospitalized during the reference week in April was around 6,000, down from 10,000 in March.  

• Conclusion: My guess is employment gains will be above consensus expectations.