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Friday, May 17, 2024

Early Q2 GDP Tracking: 1.9% to 3.6%

by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2024 08:23:00 AM

From BofA:

2Q US GDP tracking is down a tenth from our official forecast of 2.0% q/q saar to 1.9% q/q saar [May 17th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We raised our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +3.2% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales estimate by 0.1pp to +2.5%, but we lowered our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q1 by 0.1pp to +1.2% (vs. +1.6% originally reported). [May 16th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.6 percent on May 16, down from 3.8 percent on May 15. [May 16th estimate]