by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2024 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 619 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up sharply.

Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 11.3 percent below the revised April rate of 698,000 and is 16.5 percent below the May 2023 estimate of 741,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were close to pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in May to 9.3 months from 8.1 months in April.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 481,000. This represents a supply of 9.3 months at the current sales rate."

Sales were well below expectations of 650 thousand SAAR, however sales for the three previous months were revised up significantly. I'll have more later today.