by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2024 08:50:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 5.0% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through May 2024.

Services were up 5.2% YoY as of May 2024, unchanged from 5.2% YoY in April.

Services less rent of shelter was up 5.0% YoY in May, up from 4.9% YoY in April.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -3.7% YoY as of May 2024, down from -3.2% YoY in April.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -1.7% YoY in May, down from -1.2% YoY in April.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through May) and housing from the PCE report (through April)

Shelter was up 5.4% year-over-year in May, down from 5.5% in April. Housing (PCE) was up 5.6% YoY in April, down slightly from 5.8% in March.

This is still catching up with private data.  The BLS noted this morning: "the index for shelter rose in May, up 0.4 percent for the fourth consecutive month."

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.9% YoY in May, down from 2.1% in April.