by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2024 08:14:00 AM

Inventory growth paused this week, likely due to the July 4th holiday weekend.  

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 31.9% from the February seasonal bottom.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of July 12th, inventory was at 651 thousand (7-day average), compared to 653 thousand the prior week.   

Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. 

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up 75% from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 38.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 40.0%), and down 31.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 31.2%). 

Inventory should be above 2020 levels for the same week next week.

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.