by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2024 11:21:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2024

A brief excerpt:

Last week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
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Other measures of house prices suggest prices will be up slightly less YoY in the May Case-Shiller index. The NAR reported median prices were up 5.8% YoY in May, up from 5.4% YoY in April. The month-to-month decline in existing home sales in May was due to the South region where prices are the lowest, and this regional decline in sales probably boosted the median price slightly.

ICE reported prices were up 4.6% YoY in May, down from 5.3% YoY in April, and Freddie Mac reported house prices were up 5.9% YoY in May, down from 6.4% YoY in April.

Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. Based on recent monthly data, and the FMHPI, the YoY change in the Case-Shiller index will likely be lower YoY in May compared to April.

There is much more in the article.