by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2024 08:00:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for June. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for May. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Annual US Home Price Growth Below 5% for Second Consecutive Month as June Home Prices Cool

• U.S. home prices posted a 4.7% year-over-year gain in June, with only one state posting double-digit gains.

• By summer 2025, prices are predicted to slow to 2.3% as home price growth continues to slow

• In June, home prices were up only 0.3% from the month before, half the rate of seasonal increase seen in June in the years prior to the pandemic
...
U.S. year-over-year home price gains inched down, reaching 4.7% in June, falling further from the previous month’s 4.9% in what will likely be a continual slide throughout the next year. Although June marked the 150th consecutive month of annual growth, the rate of growth is expected to decrease by more than half of its current rate, with prices expected to grow by only 2.3% on a year-over-year basis next summer.

Month over month, home prices rose just 0.3% from May to June. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that prices will repeat that pattern, rising by 0.3% again from June 2024 to July 2024. In the years prior to pandemic, monthly gains from May to July generally saw stronger increases. The cooling of monthly gains during the spring home-buying season reflects the impact of high mortgage rates on home buyers’ budgets and constraint on affordability.
...
“Housing market activity essentially froze at the end of the spring home-buying season as high mortgage rates continued to compress affordability and dissuade potential homebuyers,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic. “The 0.3% gain in prices from the month before was less than half the increase seen between May and June prior to the pandemic, when the gains averaged 0.8%. In addition, cooling home prices continued to spread across more markets, and nine states reported a monthly decline, up from three states last month. The April surge in mortgage rates notably weighed on consumer sentiment, and consumers increasingly chose to respond to the anticipation of a lower mortgage rate environment later this year.”
emphasis added

This was a smaller YoY increase than reported for May, and down from the 5.8% YoY increase reported at the beginning of 2024.