CPI Previews

The key economic report this week is July CPI to be released on Wednesday. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.0% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY.

From BofA:

We forecast headline CPI rose by 0.3% m/m in July, owing mainly to a pickup in core services inflation and energy prices. This would leave the y/y rate unchanged at 3.0%. Meanwhile, we expect core CPI increased by 0.2% m/m. While this is not quite as low as June, it is in line with prior trend in deflation and should meet the Fed's benchmark for beginning rate cuts in September.

From Goldman:

We forecast a 0.16% increase (vs. 0.2% consensus) in core CPI prices in July.
We estimate a 0.17% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food (+0.15%) and energy (+0.4%) prices.