We initiated our 3Q US GDP tracker with the July retail sales print. The 3Q GDP tracking estimate went up from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar to 2.6% q/q saar. [August 16th update]From Goldman:
emphasis added
We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales forecast stands at +2.0%. [August 16th estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.0 percent on August 16th.
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