by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2024 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 46.8% in July, down from 48.5% in June. The employment index was at 43.4%, down from 49.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.1%, down from 49.3%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 46.8% July 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fourth consecutive month and the 20th time in the last 21 months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.8 percent in July, down 1.7 percentage points from the 48.5 percent recorded in June. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 51st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.4 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the 49.3 percent recorded in June. The July reading of the Production Index (45.9 percent) is 2.6 percentage points lower than June’s figure of 48.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.9 percent, up 0.8 percentage point compared to the reading of 52.1 percent in June. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.7 percent, equaling its June reading. The Employment Index registered 43.4 percent, down 5.9 percentage points from June’s figure of 49.3 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in July.  This was below the consensus forecast.