by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2024 08:49:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined and is now up 4.6% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through July 2024.

Services were up 4.9% YoY as of July 2024, down from 5.0% YoY in June.

Services less rent of shelter was up 4.6% YoY in July, down from 4.8% YoY in June.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -4.1% YoY as of July 2024, down from -4.1% YoY in June.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -1.7% YoY in July, unchanged from -1.7% YoY in June.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through July) and housing from the PCE report (through June)

Shelter was up 5.0% year-over-year in July, down from 5.1% in June. Housing (PCE) was up 5.3% YoY in June, down from 5.5% in May.

The BLS noted: "The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in July, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the monthly increase in the all items index."

This is still catching up with private data.

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.8% YoY in July, unchanged from 1.8% in June.