by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2024 03:54:00 PM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Annual US Home Price Growth Dips Below 5% as Summer Brings Notable Cooling to the Housing Market

• U.S. home prices posted a 4.3% year-over-year gain in July, with no states posting double-digit gains.

• Home prices showed no gains in July compared with the month before – the first July since 2010 that home prices didn’t increase outside the 2022 declines following a surge in mortgage rates

• By August, home prices are forecast to rise only 0.2% as the summer slowdown continues.

• Miami once again took the lead as the metro with the greatest price growth among the top 10 largest metros
...
U.S. year-over-year home price gains inched down, reaching 4.3% in July, falling further from the previous month’s 4.7% and resting below 5% for the third consecutive month. On a month-over-month basis, home prices decreased by 0.01% in July 2024 compared with June 2024. We will likely see home prices continue to slide for the remainder of the year as sales across the country slow. Although July marked the 150th consecutive month of annual growth, monthly home price growth is starting to slip, and annual forecasts are showing smaller anticipated gains. By August, home prices are forecast to rise only 0.2%, and next year, prices will inch up by 2.2%.

Much of this sluggishness can be attributed to high mortgage interest rates that are continuing to challenge the housing market. As buyers remain cautious, sales remain low. However, the highly anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this fall may help improve consumer purchase sentiment for the housing market.

“Housing demand continued to buckle under the pressure of high mortgage rates and unaffordable home prices, leading to a considerable slowing of home price gains during the summer. July’s prices were essentially flat from the month before, which was notably cooler than the average gain of 0.4% recorded between June and July in years prior to the pandemic and especially during the pandemic,” said Dr. Selma Hepp chief economist for CoreLogic. “The question for home prices going forward is whether the upcoming rate cut from the Fed and expected continuation of falling mortgage rates will be sufficient to motivate potential homebuyers who may start to fear cooling labor market and continued uncertainty of a soft landing, along with anticipation around the presidential election. And while lower mortgage rates are a boost to affordability and are likely to help buyer demand, the usual fall housing market slowdown is upon us and is likely to contain any significant surge in activity.”
emphasis added

This was a smaller YoY increase than reported for May, and down from the 5.8% YoY increase reported at the beginning of 2024.