RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2024 02:12:00 PM
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
FOMC Projections
Statement here.
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.
Here are the projections. Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is slightly above expectations, and inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up a little later this year).
In June, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was around 5.125% at the end of 2024. The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now at 4.5% at the end of 2024.
Market participants expect the target range to be around 4.25% at the end of 2024.
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in August and the projections for Q4 2024 were revised up.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of July 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.5 percent year-over-year (YoY). The projections for PCE inflation were revised down.
PCE core inflation increased 2.6 percent YoY in July. The projections for core PCE inflation were about the same.
The BEA's second estimate for Q2 GDP showed real growth at 3.0% annualized, following 1.4% annualized real growth in Q1. Early estimates for Q2 GDP are around 3% annualized, however, projections for Q4 2024 were revised down slightly!
| GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Sept 2024 | 1.9 to 2.1 | 1.8 to 2.2 | 1.9 to 2.3 | 1.8 to 2.1 |
| June 2024 | 1.9 to 2.3 | 1.8 to 2.2 | 1.8 to 2.1 | --- |
The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in August and the projections for Q4 2024 were revised up.
| Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Sept 2024 | 4.3 to 4.4 | 4.2 to 4.5 | 4.0 to 4.4 | 4.0 to 4.4 |
| June 2024 | 3.9 to 4.2 | 3.9 to 4.3 | 3.9 to 4.3 | --- |
As of July 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.5 percent year-over-year (YoY). The projections for PCE inflation were revised down.
| Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Sept 2024 | 2.2 to 2.4 | 2.1 to 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| June 2024 | 2.5 to 2.9 | 2.2 to 2.4 | 2.0 to 2.1 | --- |
PCE core inflation increased 2.6 percent YoY in July. The projections for core PCE inflation were about the same.
| Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Sept 2024 | 2.6 to 2.7 | 2.1 to 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| June 2024 | 2.8 to 3.0 | 2.3 to 2.4 | 2.0 to 2.1 | --- |
