by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2024 11:46:00 AM

Note: This is a repeat sales index (like Case-Shiller and FHFA). ICE is releasing this index early this month. 

Several cities in Florida are now seeing year-over-year price declines (as inventory surges).

From ICE:

• Home prices continued to cool in August, with prices up +3.0% from the same time last year according to the ICE Home Price Index, marking the slowest rate of home price growth in over a year

• On an adjusted basis prices rose by +0.12% in the month – the slowest adjusted monthly growth since last November – equivalent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of +1.4%

• While those soft monthly gains suggest that the annual home price growth rate may slow further in September, the market may be poised to catch a two different tail winds in coming months

• The first will come from softer comparable sales from late 2023 when mortgage rates had climbed above 7.5%, with the second coming from easing 30-year rates and improved affordability in September

• August home price gains were driven by mortgage rates in the high 6% range in July, before they trended sharply lower through August and September

• September home prices were driven by rates in the mid-6% range, while October prices will be driven by 30-year rates that have been in the low 6% range

• It will be worth watching the housing supply/demand and price dynamics closely in coming months given the sharp downward trend in mortgage rates in recent weeks Price growth slowed across two-thirds of the nation’s largest markets in August

• The strongest cooling was seen in the Midwest and Northeast – areas of the country that, while slightly cooler than recent months, continue to see the strongest home price growth nationwide

• On the other end of the spectrum, 1 in 4 of the nation’s largest markets saw prices edge lower on a seasonally adjusted basis, led by North Port, Cape Coral, Austin TX, Memphis, Tucson, and Atlanta

• A dozen major markets are now seeing home prices below last year’s levels, including Cape Coral and North Port where prices are down 6.4% and 5.7%, respectively, from this same time last year

• Of the 12 markets where prices have fallen over the past 12 months, 7 are in the state of Florida along with San Francisco, Austin, San Antonio, Memphis, and New Orleans
emphasis added