by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2024 12:57:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

A brief excerpt:

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in September were mostly for contracts signed in July and August when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.85% and 6.50%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).
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In September, sales in these markets were down 6.0% YoY. Last month, in August, these same markets were down 5.2% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in September 2024 (20) as in September 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data. Last month there was one fewer working day in August 2024 compared to August 2023 (22 vs 23), so seasonally adjusted sales were down less than NSA sales.
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Last year, the NAR reported sales in September 2023 at 3.98 million SAAR.  This data suggests that the September existing home sales report will show a year-over-year decline.  The cycle low was 3.85 million SAAR in October 2023.  A new cycle low is possible.
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More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.