by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2024 04:04:00 PM

The October employment report will be released on Friday. The consensus is for 120,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. 

Analysts are trying to estimate the distortion from Hurrican Milton.  In September 2005, the initial BLS report showed a loss of 35 thousand jobs due to the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Katrina hit in late August, and Rita during the reference period in September).  This was eventually revised to a gain of 57 thousand (still well below the average for the year of 210 thousand per month.  Milton also made landfall during the reference period, so the BLS will try to adjust for impact.

The BLS released the strike report on Friday, and that showed a loss of 41 thousand jobs due to strikes (mostly Boeing).

From Goldman Sachs:

We expect payroll growth of 95k in October (vs. 186k 3-month average) because Big Data measures point to slower job growth, we estimate the hurricanes will subtract 40-50k this month, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that strikes will exert a 41k drag. These drags should have less impact on ADP employment, which we expect to rise 115k in October.

We forecast an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate.

From BofA:

We forecast nonfarm payrolls rose by 100k in October. Although this is below consensus, we’d still view it as a solid print, since we estimate that Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike lowered payrolls by about 50k. ... Meanwhile, the unemployment rate should move back up to 4.2%, partly due in part to hurricane distortions.