by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2024 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 47.2% in September, unchanged from 47.2% in August. The employment index was at 43.9%, down from 46.0% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 46.1%, up from 44.6%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.2% September 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the sixth consecutive month and the 22nd time in the last 23 months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.2 percent in September, matching the figure recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 53rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 46.1 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the 44.6 percent recorded in August. The September reading of the Production Index (49.8 percent) is 5 percentage points higher than August’s figure of 44.8 percent. The Prices Index went into contraction (or ‘decreasing’) territory for the first time this year, registering 48.3 percent, down 5.7 percentage points compared to the reading of 54 percent in August. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.1 percent, up 0.5 percentage point compared to the 43.6 percent recorded in August. The Employment Index registered 43.9 percent, down 2.1 percentage points from August’s figure of 46 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in September.  This was slightly below the consensus forecast.